Contabilidade Gerencial e Mercado de Capitais: o preço das ações em mercado é mais bem explicado por indicadores internos da empresa ou por indicadores externos?
Keywords:
Contabilidade Gerencial, Mercado de Capitais, Indicadores Internos e ExternosAbstract
Em mercados efi cientes as informações são prontamente assimiladas pelos investidores e automaticamente refl etidas nos preços de mercado das ações. Na prática, não se sabe se os investidores assimilam essas informações automaticamente, e tampouco se todas causam o mesmo impacto na percepção do investidor e no preço das ações. Diante disto, este estudo buscou verifi car se o preço das ações negociadas na BOVESPA, no período de 1994 a 2004, é mais bem explicado por indicadores internos da empresa ou por indicadores externos. Assume como hipótese inicial que os indicadores internos têm maior poder de explicação dos preços. Trata-se de estudo descritivo, com pesquisa bibliográfica e documental. A análise dos dados é econométrica, por meio do cálculo dos coeficientes de correlação e de determinação. Para testar a hipótese foram selecionados oito indicadores internos e cinco externos. Aqueles foram extraídos dos demonstrativos contábeis e estes do próprio mercado. Os resultados indicam, de forma incipiente, que os indicadores externos, no caso o índice IBOVESPA e o índice de inflação IGP-DI, explicam melhor o preço de mercado das ações. Dos internos, o indicador de rentabilidade do patrimônio líquido foi o que apresentou melhores resultados, mas aquém dos dois indicadores externos. Para afirmações conclusivas se faz necessário ampliar os estudos.
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