Avaliação de indicadores socioeconômicos dos grupos 1 e 3 de municípios paulistas com o uso da ánalise de regressão logística
Keywords:
Regressão Logística, Receitas Públicas, Índice Paulista de responsabilidade social, longevidade, escolaridadeAbstract
Este trabalho faz parte de um amplo estudo que combina diversos grupos de municípios paulistas, os quais são analisados mediante técnicas estatísticas multivariadas. Este trabalho objetivou indicar se os municípios paulistas, caracterizados pelo Índice de Responsabilidade Social Paulista (IPRS) como “municípios-polo” (grupo 1) e municípios saudáveis, mas com baixo desenvolvimento econômico (grupo 3), podem ser diferenciados pelos valores per capita de transferência do Fundo de Participação dos Municípios (FPM), quota-parte do Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços (ICMS) e receita tributária arrecadada, com base na regressão logística. Esta técnica estatística sinalizou que a variável Receita Tributária per capita é a que mais discrimina os dois grupos de municípios. É possível dizer que, no caso dos dois grupos analisados, os critérios de distribuição do FPM também são aplicados de forma diferenciada, contribuindo de forma efetiva para a eqüidade das receitas disponíveis, apoiando os governos municipais no desenvolvimento de suas políticas públicas.
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