Análise dinâmica de volatilidade para os setores do mercado acionário brasileiro: uma aplicação do modelo mrs-garch<p> Dynamic analysis of volatility for the brazilian stock market sector: a aplication of mrs-garch model
Keywords:
Índices setoriais, Mercado brasileiro, Volatilidade, Regimes de volatilidadeAbstract
Nesse artigo, foi proposta uma análise da dinâmica de volatilidade nos setores do mercado acionário brasileiro, fazendo-se assim um estudo nos principais índices setoriais da BM&F Bovespa. Utilizou-se o modelo de regimes de Markov. Como resultados, inicialmente se observou a ausência de efeito alavancagem na maioria dos regimes das séries. Além disso, houve um predomínio de assimetria bem como a persistência de volatilidade para a maior parte dos regimes dos índices. Notou-se também uma grande similaridade entre o mercado brasileiro e o setor Financeiro, sendo ambos com regimes muito próximos, além de possuírem volatilidade com característica de maior persistência após o ano de 2013. Outra similaridade encontrada foi entre o setor de Utilidade Pública e o setor de Energia Elétrica, ambos caracterizados pela grande alternância entre os regimes estimados. Assim, foi possível concluir que cada setor do mercado acionário brasileiro tem um comportamento distinto, captado pelos diferentes regimes estimados.
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