Vale a pena investir? Um estudo à luz das Opções Reais
Keywords:
Opções Reais. Incerteza. Flexibilidade Gerencial. Análise de Investimentos.Abstract
Na tomada de decisão a incerteza do ambiente de negócios não pode ser negligenciada. A Teoria das Opções Reais faz uma analogia entre oportunidades de investimento, flexibilidade gerencial e opções financeiras. Embora fundamentada no valor presente líquido, reconhece que o seu valor segue um caminho aleatório porque incorpora a aleatoriedade dos eventos (a incerteza). O objetivo desta pesquisa consiste analisar as flexibilidades existentes entre os retornos possíveis sobre um empreendimento realizado no setor de loteamento e incorporação imobiliária. Analisa-se o investimento aplicando-se o modelo de flexibilidade gerencial representado pelo desenvolvimento de cenários. Os achados apresentam que o cálculo do valor presente líquido não representa a realidade analisada por meio das Opções Reais, denotando avaliação dos retornos em até 2,5% a maior. As considerações finais indicam que a análise das Opções Reais agrega informações em relação aos métodos tradicionais, isto porque durante a análise de projetos inseridos em um ambiente de elevada incerteza, existe a possibilidade de maximizar ganhos ou minimizar perdas ao inserir risco na avaliação do projeto e a flexibilidade gerencial que o envolve.
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